SAFE
HARBOR STATEMENT UNDER THE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF
1995
Certain statements
contained in our Management's Discussion and Analysis are forward-looking and
involve uncertainties that could significantly impact results. The words
"believes," "expects," "estimates," "anticipates," "will be", "should" and
similar words or expressions identify forward-looking statements made on behalf
of Caterpillar. Uncertainties include factors that affect international
businesses, as well as matters specific to the company and the markets it
serves.
World
Economic Factors
Our projection for
about 3.5 percent growth in the world economy assumes central banks will
cautiously raise interest rates so as not to slow growth too much. Low interest
rates, and continued good economic growth, should encourage further growth in
construction and mining. Should central banks raise interest rates aggressively,
both the world economic recovery and our Machinery and Engines sales likely
would be weaker.
The U.S. economy is
growing near a three percent rate, which up to now has not created an inflation
problem. While the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, we assume the
continuation of moderate growth and low inflation will result in interest rates
of about 4 percent by the end of 2005. Long-term interest rates are expected to
rise less than short-term rates. That environment should support further growth
in construction and manufacturing, helping to keep commodity prices favorable.
Should financial conditions tighten noticeably, causing economic growth to slow
below 3 percent, expected improvements in Machinery and Engines sales likely
would be lower than projected.
Our projection of
increased sales of Machinery and Engines in Europe, Africa, Middle East (EAME)
assumes that low interest rates will allow slightly faster economic growth in
Europe and that favorable commodity prices will extend healthy recoveries in
both Africa and Middle East (AME) and the CIS. Key risks are that strong
currencies or interest rate increases could push the European economy into
recession or that commodity prices collapse. Those developments would negatively
impact our results.
Favorable commodity
prices, increased capital inflows and an improved foreign debt situation are
expected to contribute to about 4 percent growth in Latin America. As a result,
we project that both mining production and construction spending will increase,
supporting an increase in Machinery and Engines sales. This forecast is
vulnerable to a significant weakening in commodity prices, slowing in world
economic growth, widespread increases in interest rates or political
disruptions.
In Asia/Pacific, we
project sales growth in Australia, India and the developing Asian economies will
offset a further decline in China. Critical assumptions are continued growth in
coal demand, low domestic interest rates in most countries, further gains in
exports and continued good economic growth in China. Some developments that
could lower expected results include reduced demand for thermal and coking coal,
significant revaluations of regional currencies, restrictions on regional
exports and sharp interest rate hikes, particularly in China.
Commodity
Prices
Commodities
represent a significant sales opportunity, with prices and production as key
drivers. Prices have improved sharply over the past two years and our outlook
assumes continued growth in world industrial production will cause metals prices
to remain high enough in 2005 to encourage further mine investment. Any
unexpected weakening in world industrial production or construction, however,
could cause prices to drop sharply to the detriment of our results.
Coal production and
prices improved last year and our sales have benefited. We expect these trends
to continue in 2005. Should coal prices soften, due to a slowing in world
economic growth or otherwise, the ongoing sales recovery would be
vulnerable.
Oil and natural gas
prices increased sharply over the past two years due to strong demand and high
capacity usage. Higher energy prices have not halted economic recoveries since
strong demand boosted prices and world production increased. High prices are
encouraging more exploration and development and we expect increased production
in 2005 will constrain price increases. However, should significant supply cuts
occur, such as from OPEC production cuts or political unrest in a major
producing country, the resulting oil shortages and price spikes could slow
economies, potentially with a depressing impact on our sales.
Monetary
and Fiscal Policies
For most companies
operating in a global economy, monetary and fiscal policies implemented in the
United States and abroad could have a significant impact on economic growth, and
accordingly, demand for our product. In general, higher than expected interest
rates, reductions in government spending, higher taxes, excessive currency
movements, and uncertainty over key policies are some factors likely to lead to
slower economic growth and lower industry demand.
With economic data
looking more favorable, central banks in developed countries have started
raising interest rates from the lowest rates in decades. Our outlook assumes
that central banks will take great care to ensure that economic recoveries
continue and that interest rates will remain low throughout the forecast period.
Should central banks raise interest rates more aggressively than anticipated,
both economic growth and our sales could suffer.
Budget deficits in
many countries have increased, which has limited the ability of governments to
boost economies with tax cuts and more spending. Our outlook assumes that
governments will not aggressively raise taxes and slash spending to deal with
their budget imbalances. Such actions could disrupt growth and negatively affect
our sales.
Political
Factors
Political factors
in the United States and abroad can impact global companies. Our outlook assumes
that no major disruptive changes in economic policies occur in either the United
States or other major economies. Significant changes in either taxing or
spending policies could reduce activities in sectors important to our
businesses, thereby reducing sales.
Our outlook assumes
that there will be no additional significant military conflicts in either North
Korea or the Middle East in the forecast period. Such military conflicts could
severely disrupt sales into countries affected, as well as nearby
countries.
Our outlook also
assumes that there will be no major terrorist attacks. If there is a major
terrorist attack, confidence could be undermined, potentially causing a sharp
drop in economic activities and our sales. Attacks in major developed economies
would be the most disruptive.
Our outlook assumes
that efforts by countries to increase their exports will not result in
retaliatory countermeasures by other countries to block such exports,
particularly in the Asia/Pacific region. Our outlook includes a negative impact
from the phase-out of the Extraterritorial Income Exclusion (ETI) as enacted by
the American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 (the Act). However, our outlook does not
include any impact from the provision of the Act allowing preferential tax
treatment of the repatriation of non-U.S. earnings in 2005. Further, our outlook
assumes any other tax law changes will not negatively impact our provision for
income taxes.
Currency
Fluctuations
The company has
costs and revenues in many currencies and is therefore exposed to risks arising
from currency fluctuations. Our outlook assumes no significant changes in
currency values from current rates. Should currency rates change sharply,
economic activity and our results could be negatively impacted.
The company's
largest manufacturing presence is in the United States, so any unexpected
strengthening of the dollar tends to raise the foreign currency costs to our end
users and reduce our global competitiveness.
Dealer
Practices
The company sells
primarily through an independent dealer network. Dealers carry inventories of
both new and rental equipment and adjust those inventories based on their
assessments of future needs. Such adjustments can impact our results either
positively or negatively. The current outlook assumes dealers will increase
inventories in line with higher deliveries. Should dealers control inventories
more tightly, our sales would be lower.
Financial
Products Division Factors
Inherent in the
operation of Cat Financial is the credit risk associated with its customers. The
creditworthiness of each customer, and the rate of delinquencies, repossessions
and net losses on customer obligations are directly impacted by several factors,
including, but not limited to, relevant industry and economic conditions, the
availability of capital, the experience and expertise of the customer's
management team, commodity prices, political events, and the sustained value of
the underlying collateral. Additionally, interest rate movements create a degree
of risk to our operations by affecting the amount of our interest payments and
the value of our fixed rate debt. Our match funding policy manages interest rate
risk by matching the interest rate profile (fixed rate or floating rate) of our
debt portfolio with the interest rate profile of our receivables portfolio
within certain parameters. To achieve our match funding objectives, we issue
debt with similar interest rate profile to our receivables and also use interest
rate swap agreements to manage our interest rate risk exposure to interest rate
changes and in some cases to lower our cost of borrowed funds. If interest rates
move upward more sharply than anticipated, our financial results could be
negatively impacted. With respect to our insurance and investment management
operations, changes in the equity and bond markets could cause an impairment of
the value of our investment portfolio, thus requiring a negative adjustment to
earnings.
Other
Factors
The rate of
infrastructure spending, housing starts, commercial construction and mining
plays a significant role in the company's results. Our products are an integral
component of these activities and as these activities increase or decrease in
the United States or abroad, demand for our products may be significantly
impacted.
Projected cost
savings or synergies from alliances with new partners could also be negatively
impacted by a variety of factors. These factors could include, among other
things, higher than expected wages, energy and/or material costs, and/or higher
than expected financing costs due to unforeseen changes in tax, trade,
environmental, labor, safety, payroll or pension policies in any of the
jurisdictions in which the alliances conduct their operations.
The International
Association of Machinists (IAM) represents 1,999 employees under labor
agreements expiring on April 30, 2005, and May 29, 2005. Based on our historical
experience during periods when labor unrest or work stoppage by
union-represented employees has occurred, we do not expect that the occurrence
of such events, if any, arising in connection with the expiration of these
agreements will have a material impact on our operations or
results.
Results may be
impacted positively or negatively by changes in the sales mix. Our outlook
assumes a certain geographic mix of sales as well as a product mix of sales. If
actual results vary from this projected geographic and product mix of sales, our
results could be negatively impacted.
The company
operates in a highly competitive environment and our outlook depends on a
forecast of the company's share of industry sales. An unexpected reduction in
that share could result from pricing or product strategies pursued by
competitors, unanticipated product or manufacturing difficulties, a failure to
price the product competitively, or an unexpected buildup in competitors' new
machine or dealer owned rental fleets, leading to severe downward pressure on
machine rental rates and/or used equipment prices.
The environment
remains competitive from a pricing standpoint. Our 2005 sales outlook assumes
that the company will be successful in implementing worldwide machine price
increases communicated to dealers with effective dates of January 3, 2005 and
May 2, 2005. While we expect that the environment will absorb these price
actions, delays in the marketplace acceptance would negatively impact our
results. Moreover, additional price discounting to maintain our competitive
position could result in lower than anticipated price realization.
In general, our
results are sensitive to changes in economic growth, particularly those
originating in construction, mining and energy. Developments reducing such
activities also tend to lower our sales. In addition to the factors mentioned
above, our results could be negatively impacted by any of the
following:
· |
Any sudden
drop in consumer or business confidence; |
· |
Delays in
legislation needed to fund public construction;
|
· |
Regulatory or
legislative changes that slow activity in key industries;
and/or |
· |
Unexpected
collapses in stock markets. |
This discussion of
uncertainties is by no means exhaustive, but is designed to highlight important
factors that may impact our outlook. Obvious factors such as general economic
conditions throughout the world do not warrant further discussion, but are noted
to further emphasize the myriad of contingencies that may cause the company's
actual results to differ from those currently anticipated.