fwp
Filed Pursuant To Rule 433
Registration No. 333-167132
August 4, 2010
ETFs for a Weakening Dollar
BY JOHN CRONIN, ETF PRODUCT STRATEGIST, INTERMEDIARY BUSINESS GROUP, STATE STREET GLOBAL ADVISORS
Throughout much of the economic turmoil that characterized the last 24 months, the US dollar
has been viewed as the currency of choice for investors both domestically and abroad. The result
has been a steady descent in yields on US Treasuries and an increase in the value of the USD. In
fact, the pinnacle in the value of the dollar since the beginning of 2008 occurred on March 5th,
coinciding almost perfectly with the nadir of the S&P 500® when the index hit 676 on
March 9th.
However, as markets have rebounded and leading
economic indicators continue to show signs that the
recession may be abating, the dollar has lost almost 17%
of its value relative to the currencies of some of its
developed market counterparts.1 At the same
time, investors have begun to reassess risk appetite and
have sold off US Treasuries in search of higher yielding
options, putting additional downward pressure on the USD.
While the weakening dollar may reflect the markets
recognition that a correction is in order for foreign
exchange markets, it may prove to be problematic for
certain dollar-denominated investments.
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
The sweeping fiscal policy measures that were enacted
during 2008 to prevent the onset of a depression have led
to financial projections that will most certainly test the
value of the greenback going forward. While necessary,
stimulus spending and near-zero interest rates designed to
revive a system that was under cardiac arrest have created
an excess supply of dollars and transformed the USD into
the global funding currency of choice for the carry-trade.
At the same time, a normally hawkish Fed president has
been reluctant to tighten monetary policy in fear of
prematurely taking the foot off the gas pedal. A
historical analysis suggests that periods of extended
monetary easing and low interest rates typically coincide
with or precede periods of a weakening dollar (see Figure
3).
FIGURE 3: PERIODS OF MONETARY EASING
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10-YEAR AVG. YTM (%) |
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US DOLLAR INDEX (%) |
2002 |
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4.54 |
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-12.76 |
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2003 |
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4.00 |
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-14.66 |
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2004 |
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|
4.25 |
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-6.98 |
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Jan Mar 2009 |
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2.85 |
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5.06 |
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Mar 5 Oct 15 2009 |
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3.32 |
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-15.28 |
|
Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital Live, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 10/15/2009.
If you subscribe to the viewpoint that the dollar is
entering a period in which its value will decline and you
want to protect your portfolio from the partial erosion of
dollar-denominated investments, the SPDR family of ETFs
offer several exchange traded funds that capture that
sentiment.
FIGURE 1: US DOLLAR VS. S&P 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGE
Source: Bloomberg, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 9/30/2009.
FIGURE 2: US DOLLAR VS. S&P 500 INDEX VALUE
Source: Bloomberg, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 10/30/2009.
Precise in a world that isnt.TM
FIGURE 4: INTERNATIONAL BOND PORTFOLIO EXAMPLE
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TOTAL |
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% FROM |
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BOND PRICE |
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BOND PRICE |
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BOND |
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CURRENCY |
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RETURN ON |
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% FROM |
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BOND |
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AT PURCHASE |
|
FX RATE ON BUY |
|
AT SALE |
|
FX RATE ON SALE |
|
PRICE (%) |
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(%) |
|
BOND (%) |
|
CURRENCY |
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PRICE |
JAPAN GOVERNMENT BOND |
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$ |
98 |
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¥ / $ |
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|
110.300 |
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$ |
100 |
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¥ / $ |
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108.080 |
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2.04 |
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2.05 |
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1.35 |
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0.68 |
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0.67 |
|
FRANCE GOVERNMENT BOND |
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$ |
95 |
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$ / |
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1.390 |
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$ |
99 |
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$ / |
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1.502 |
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4.21 |
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8.06 |
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4.05 |
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2.66 |
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1.39 |
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UK GOVERNMENT BOND |
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$ |
96 |
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$ / £ |
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1.438 |
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$ |
98 |
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$ / £ |
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1.634 |
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2.08 |
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13.63 |
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5.19 |
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4.50 |
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0.69 |
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TOTAL PORTFOLIO |
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10.59 |
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7.83 |
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2.75 |
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Source: SSgA Strategy & Research. For Illustrative Purposes Only.
CURRENCY EXPOSURE VIA INTERNATIONAL TREASURIES
International Treasuries issued and held in their
local currency by US investors provide exposure to
fluctuations in the USD by means of the anticipated
conversion back to US dollars at prevailing exchange
rates. To illustrate, let us consider a US investor
holding a portfolio of three sovereign developed market
bonds in their respective local currency. For purposes of
this illustration, coupon accrual is excluded from the
calculation, although it would also be integrated in each
of the cases shown in Figure 4.
As shown above, periods of a weakening dollar will
generally have a positive impact on a diversified
portfolio of international bonds, with the opposite being
true during a strengthening dollar environment. In our
hypothetical example, 73% of the 10.8% return on the
portfolio was directly attributed to currency gains. This
figure is consistent with an analysis of the last 22 years
which reveals that during the 5 worst years for the
greenback, the percentage of the total return of the
Barclays Capital Global ex-US Treasury Index that resulted
from currency range between 68% and 100%. Furthermore, for
each year the dollar weakened, the average percent of the
total return linked to
currency was 71%. The same index maintained an almost
perfect inverse relationship with the US Dollar Index for
the most recent 10-year period (see Figure 6).
FIGURE 5: PERCENT OF INTERNATIONAL TREASURY RETURN ATTRIBUTABLE TO CURRENCY MOVEMENT
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BARCLAYS |
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BARCLAYS CAPITAL |
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% OF TOTAL |
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CAPITAL GLOBAL |
|
GLOBAL TREASURY |
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RETURN |
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US DOLLAR |
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TREASURY EX-US |
|
EX-US INDEX |
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ATTRIBUTED |
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INDEX (%) |
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INDEX (%) |
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(HEDGED) (%) |
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TO CURRENCY |
1987 |
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-17.56 |
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34.76 |
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9.30 |
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73.25 |
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2003 |
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-14.66 |
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18.20 |
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1.91 |
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|
89.51 |
|
2002 |
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-12.76 |
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21.91 |
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6.96 |
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68.23 |
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1990 |
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-10.78 |
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15.71 |
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3.69 |
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76.51 |
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1994 |
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-8.38 |
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5.34 |
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-4.71 |
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100.00 |
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2007 |
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-8.31 |
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10.93 |
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4.86 |
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55.54 |
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2006 |
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-8.25 |
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7.29 |
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3.38 |
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|
53.64 |
|
2004 |
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-6.98 |
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12.06 |
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|
5.16 |
|
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|
57.21 |
|
YTD 2009 |
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-5.70 |
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|
6.54 |
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|
2.20 |
|
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66.36 |
|
1998 |
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-5.50 |
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|
18.21 |
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11.96 |
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34.32 |
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1995 |
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-4.46 |
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|
21.46 |
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|
17.33 |
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|
19.25 |
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Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Capital Live, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 9/30/2009.
FIGURE 6: CORRELATION TO TRADITIONAL ASSET CLASSES: OCTOBER 1999 SEPTEMBER 2009
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1 |
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2 |
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3 |
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4 |
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5 |
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6 |
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7 |
1) BARCLAYS CAPITAL GLOBAL TREASURY EX-U.S. INDEX |
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1.00 |
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2) US DOLLAR INDEX |
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-0.89 |
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1.00 |
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3) S&P 500 INDEX |
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0.11 |
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-0.26 |
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1.00 |
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4) MSCI EAFE INDEX |
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0.32 |
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-0.51 |
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0.88 |
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1.00 |
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5) MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX |
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0.20 |
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|
-0.39 |
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|
0.79 |
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0.88 |
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1.00 |
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6) DOW JONES U.S. SELECT REIT INDEX |
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0.26 |
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|
-0.38 |
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|
|
0.56 |
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|
0.58 |
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|
0.48 |
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1.00 |
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7) S&P GSCI |
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|
0.16 |
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|
-0.34 |
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|
0.19 |
|
|
|
0.35 |
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|
0.36 |
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|
|
0.14 |
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|
1.00 |
|
Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR, SSgA Strategy & Research as of 9/30/2009.
Precise in a world that isnt.TM
The SPDR Barclays Capital Short Term International
Treasury Bond ETF (BWZ) and the SPDR Barclays Capital
International Treasury Bond ETF (BWX) provide diversified
geographic exposure to sovereign debt issues denominated
in their respective local currency. The primary difference
between the two is the shortened duration exposure offered
by BWZ which tracks the 1-3 year portion of the Barclays
Capital Global ex-US Treasury Capped Index. As a result,
BWZ will typically have less sensitivity to changes in
interest rates. Along with the geographic diversification
inherent in the two,
the products also provide exposure to a broad set of
currencies (see Figures 7 through 10).
FIGURE 7: SPDR BARCLAYS CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL TREASURY BOND (BWX) COUNTRY WEIGHTS
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COUNTRY |
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# OF BONDS |
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MARKET VALUE ($) |
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% WEIGHT |
JAPAN |
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10 |
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316,078 |
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22.28 |
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ITALY |
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6 |
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167,306 |
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|
11.79 |
|
GERMANY |
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5 |
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158,738 |
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11.19 |
|
BELGIUM |
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4 |
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67,751 |
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|
4.78 |
|
UNITED KINGDOM |
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7 |
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66,182 |
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|
4.67 |
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GREECE |
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4 |
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65,615 |
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|
4.63 |
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FRANCE |
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4 |
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65,127 |
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|
4.59 |
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SPAIN |
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4 |
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64,803 |
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4.57 |
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CANADA |
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5 |
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62,266 |
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|
4.39 |
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NETHERLANDS |
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6 |
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61,740 |
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|
4.35 |
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AUSTRIA |
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3 |
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51,280 |
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3.61 |
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TAIWAN |
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2 |
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41,488 |
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|
2.92 |
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DENMARK |
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5 |
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40,721 |
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|
2.87 |
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POLAND |
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6 |
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40,247 |
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|
|
2.84 |
|
MEXICO |
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|
4 |
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39,201 |
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|
|
2.76 |
|
AUSTRALIA |
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4 |
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37,520 |
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|
|
2.64 |
|
SWEDEN |
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|
4 |
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|
37,431 |
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|
|
2.64 |
|
SOUTH AFRICA |
|
|
4 |
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|
34,407 |
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|
|
2.43 |
|
EUROPEAN UNION |
|
|
1 |
|
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|
776 |
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|
|
0.05 |
|
Source: Barclays Capital Point, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 10/20/2009.
FIGURE 8: SPDR BARCLAYS CAPITAL INTERNATIONAL TREASURY BOND (BWX) CURRENCY EXPOSURE
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CURRENCY |
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# OF BONDS |
|
MARKET VALUE ($) |
|
% WEIGHT |
EURO |
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|
37 |
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703,137 |
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|
|
49.56 |
|
JAPANESE YEN |
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|
10 |
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|
|
316,078 |
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|
|
22.28 |
|
POUNDS STERLING |
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|
7 |
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|
66,182 |
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|
|
4.67 |
|
CANADIAN DOLLAR |
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|
5 |
|
|
|
62,266 |
|
|
|
4.39 |
|
TAIWAN DOLLAR |
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|
2 |
|
|
|
41,488 |
|
|
|
2.92 |
|
DANISH KRONE |
|
|
5 |
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|
|
40,721 |
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|
|
2.87 |
|
POLAND ZLOTY |
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|
6 |
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|
40,247 |
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|
|
2.84 |
|
MEXICAN PESO |
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|
4 |
|
|
|
39,201 |
|
|
|
2.76 |
|
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR |
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4 |
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|
37,520 |
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|
|
2.64 |
|
SWEDISH KRONA |
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4 |
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|
37,431 |
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|
|
2.64 |
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S. AFRICAN RAND |
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|
4 |
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|
|
34,407 |
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|
|
2.43 |
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Source: Barclays Capital Point, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 10/20/2009.
FIGURE 9: SPDR BARCLAYS CAPITAL SHORT TERM INTERNATIONAL TREASURY BOND (BWZ) COUNTRY WEIGHTS
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COUNTRY |
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# OF BONDS |
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MARKET VALUE ($) |
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% WEIGHT |
JAPAN |
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|
4 |
|
|
|
23,346 |
|
|
|
22.36 |
|
GERMANY |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
12,481 |
|
|
|
11.95 |
|
ITALY |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
11,599 |
|
|
|
11.11 |
|
SPAIN |
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|
3 |
|
|
|
5,240 |
|
|
|
5.02 |
|
UNITED KINGDOM |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
4,900 |
|
|
|
4.69 |
|
SOUTH KOREA |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
4,880 |
|
|
|
4.67 |
|
FRANCE |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
4,695 |
|
|
|
4.50 |
|
CANADA |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
4,266 |
|
|
|
4.09 |
|
GREECE |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
4,212 |
|
|
|
4.03 |
|
NETHERLANDS |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
3,836 |
|
|
|
3.67 |
|
BELGIUM |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
3,464 |
|
|
|
3.32 |
|
POLAND |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
2,876 |
|
|
|
2.75 |
|
MEXICO |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
2,559 |
|
|
|
2.45 |
|
AUSTRIA |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
2,500 |
|
|
|
2.39 |
|
DENMARK |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
2,345 |
|
|
|
2.25 |
|
AUSTRALIA |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
2,144 |
|
|
|
2.05 |
|
TAIWAN |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
2,088 |
|
|
|
2.00 |
|
HUNGARY |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1,925 |
|
|
|
1.84 |
|
SINGAPORE |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1,860 |
|
|
|
1.78 |
|
SWEDEN |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1,767 |
|
|
|
1.69 |
|
SOUTH AFRICA |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1,602 |
|
|
|
1.53 |
|
Source: Barclays Capital Point, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 10/20/2009.
FIGURE 10: SPDR BARCLAYS CAPITAL SHORT TERM INTERNATIONAL TREASURY BOND (BWZ) CURRENCY EXPOSURE
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
CURRENCY |
|
# OF BONDS |
|
MARKET VALUE ($) |
|
% WEIGHT |
EURO |
|
|
19 |
|
|
|
48,029 |
|
|
|
45.99 |
|
JAPANESE YEN |
|
|
4 |
|
|
|
23,346 |
|
|
|
22.36 |
|
POUNDS STERLING |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
4,900 |
|
|
|
4.69 |
|
KOREAN WON |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
4,880 |
|
|
|
4.67 |
|
CANADIAN DOLLAR |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
4,266 |
|
|
|
4.09 |
|
POLAND ZLOTY |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
2,876 |
|
|
|
2.75 |
|
MEXICAN PESO |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
2,559 |
|
|
|
2.45 |
|
DANISH KRONE |
|
|
3 |
|
|
|
2,345 |
|
|
|
2.25 |
|
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
2,144 |
|
|
|
2.05 |
|
TAIWAN DOLLAR |
|
|
1 |
|
|
|
2,088 |
|
|
|
2.00 |
|
HUNGARY FORINT |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1,925 |
|
|
|
1.84 |
|
SINGAPORE DOLLAR |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1,860 |
|
|
|
1.78 |
|
SWEDISH KRONA |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1,767 |
|
|
|
1.69 |
|
S. AFRICAN RAND |
|
|
2 |
|
|
|
1,602 |
|
|
|
1.53 |
|
Source: Barclays Capital Point, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 10/20/2009.
Precise in a world that isnt.TM
DUAL THREAT
If a global economic recovery is indeed on the horizon
as many have forecasted, it will almost certainly be
accompanied by inflationary pressures. The unprecedented
period of fiscal stimulus and monetary easing is evident
in both the growth of the money supply and the ever
expanding global treasury market. Consider that since the
beginning of 2007, the US and International Treasury
Markets have increased 53% and 44%, respectively (see
Figure 11). Similarly, the US Money supply, as measured by
M1 and M2, has increased 18% for the same time period with
the second
sharpest monthly increase on record being registered in
December 2008 (see Figure 12). Moreover, the five largest
monthly percentage increases in US government debt
outstanding have all occurred within the past 12 months
(see Figure 13). As housing, wages, consumer confidence,
employment and other economic measures continue to
stabilize there will undoubtedly be upward pressure on
prices and inflation.
FIGURE 11: SIZE OF GLOBAL TREASURY MARKET
Source: Barclays Capital Live, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 9/30/2009.
FIGURE 12: GROWTH OF US MONEY SUPPLY (M2)
Source: Federal Reserve, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 9/30/2009.
FIGURE 13: LARGEST MONTHLY % CHANGE IN US DEBT OUTSTANDING
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MONTH |
|
MARKET VALUE ($ MIL) |
|
INCREASE (%) |
MARCH 2009 |
|
|
2,729,701 |
|
|
|
4.55 |
|
FEBRUARY 2009 |
|
|
2,610,841 |
|
|
|
3.43 |
|
APRIL 2009 |
|
|
2,822,588 |
|
|
|
3.40 |
|
JANUARY 2009 |
|
|
2,524,184 |
|
|
|
3.17 |
|
SEPTEMBER 2008 |
|
|
2,250,202 |
|
|
|
3.12 |
|
JULY 2002 |
|
|
1,416,953 |
|
|
|
3.10 |
|
JUNE 1992 |
|
|
1,540,573 |
|
|
|
3.08 |
|
DECEMBER 2008 |
|
|
2,446,536 |
|
|
|
3.05 |
|
SEPTEMBER 2009 |
|
|
3,190,119 |
|
|
|
3.05 |
|
Source: Barclays Capital Live, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 9/30/2009.
Should global inflation materialize and prospects for
a weakening dollar advance, investors may look to global
inflation-protected securities to provide a twofold
hedging mechanism. International inflation-linked
securities function very similar to international
treasuries with the exception that a portion of the
bonds price appreciation or depreciation is tied to an
inflationary barometer in each respective country, much
like the Consumer Price Index in the United States. In
the case of the SPDR DB International Government
Inflation-Protected Bond ETF (WIP), these monthly
inflation adjustments will typically manifest themselves
by making up a portion of the monthly distribution from
the fund.
WIP represents a diversified portfolio of international
inflation-protected bonds at both the geographic and
currency level. At present, WIP provides exposure to 14
different currencies across 17 countries (see Figures 14
and 15). To the extent that inflation progresses and the
dollar continues to recede, WIP should be well positioned
within US dollar-based portfolios to provide a double
hedge.
FIGURE 14: SPDR DB INTERNATIONAL GOVERNMENT INFLATION-PROTECTED BOND ETF (WIP) COUNTRY WEIGHTS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
COUNTRY |
|
% WEIGHT |
|
COUNTRY |
|
% WEIGHT |
UK
|
|
|
18.76 |
|
|
JAPAN
|
|
|
4.75 |
|
FRANCE
|
|
|
17.75 |
|
|
GREECE
|
|
|
4.21 |
|
GERMANY
|
|
|
5.59 |
|
|
TURKEY
|
|
|
4.07 |
|
BRAZIL
|
|
|
4.99 |
|
|
SOUTH ARICA
|
|
|
3.84 |
|
CANADA
|
|
|
4.85 |
|
|
CHILE
|
|
|
3.49 |
|
MEXICO
|
|
|
4.81 |
|
|
AUSTRALIA
|
|
|
3.08 |
|
ISRAEL
|
|
|
4.79 |
|
|
SOUTH KOREA
|
|
|
2.70 |
|
ITALY
|
|
|
4.78 |
|
|
POLAND
|
|
|
2.65 |
|
SWEDEN
|
|
|
4.76 |
|
|
UNITED STATES
|
|
|
0.11 |
|
Source: SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 10/20/2009.
Precise in a world that isnt.TM
FIGURE 15: SPDR DB INTERNATIONAL GOVERNMENT INFLATION-PROTECTED BOND ETF (WIP) CURRENCY EXPOSURE
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CURRENCY |
|
% WEIGHT |
|
CURRENCY |
|
% WEIGHT |
EURO
|
|
|
32.34 |
|
|
TURKISH LIRA
|
|
|
4.07 |
|
UK POUND
|
|
|
18.76 |
|
|
SOUTH AFRICAN RAND
|
|
|
3.84 |
|
BRAZILIAN REAL
|
|
|
4.99 |
|
|
CHILE
|
|
|
3.49 |
|
CANADIAN DOLLAR
|
|
|
4.85 |
|
|
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR
|
|
|
3.08 |
|
MEXICAN PESO
|
|
|
4.81 |
|
|
SOUTH KOREA
|
|
|
2.70 |
|
ISRAEL
|
|
|
4.79 |
|
|
POLAND ZLOTY
|
|
|
2.65 |
|
SWEDISH KRONA
|
|
|
4.76 |
|
|
US DOLLAR
|
|
|
0.11 |
|
JAPANESE YEN
|
|
|
4.75 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source: SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 10/20/2009.
FIGURE 16: GOLD PRICE VS. US CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics, as of 10/20/2009.
GOLD AS AN INFLATION AND DOLLAR HEDGE
The versatility inherent in gold investing has been
well documented. Among those benefits are golds hedging
capabilities in a portfolio, specifically with respect to
inflation and a declining dollar. Historically, the price
of gold has displayed parallel movements to the US
Consumer Price Index (CPI) in years marked by the most
pronounced inflation.
For instance, for the calendar years of 1979-1981 the CPI
registered an annualized increase of 11.55%. During that
same time period, the annualized return for the price of
gold was 20.71% (see Figure 16).
In a testament to golds flexibility, it has also
displayed an inverse relationship with the US Dollar. In
fact, for the most recent 10-year period through
September, golds correlation to the US Dollar Index was
-0.49 (see Figure 17).
The SPDR Gold Shares ETP (GLD) offers cost-effective
access to the precious metal through fractional ownership
in a grantor trust whose sole asset is allocated 400 oz.
London
Good Delivery bars. The physical gold bars are stored in
a vault in London with each share of GLD representing
approximately 1/10 of an ounce, less accrued expenses.
CONCLUSION
As markets claw their way out of the abyss with
government stimulus programs funneling into the economy
and continued credit market stabilization, it is likely
inflation will pick up and the selloff in US Treasuries
will accelerate, putting further downward pressure on the
US dollar. In the event that this scenario materializes,
investor portfolios with exposure to some of the asset
classes we have mentioned should benefit from their
intrinsic ability to provide a hedge during periods of
high inflation and a weakening US dollar.
FIGURE 17: GOLD CORRELATIONS: OCTOBER 1999 SEPTEMBER 2009
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 |
|
2 |
|
3 |
|
4 |
|
5 |
|
6 |
|
7 |
1) GOLD LONDON PM FIXING |
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2) US DOLLAR INDEX |
|
|
-0.49 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
3) S&P 500 INDEX |
|
|
-0.03 |
|
|
|
-0.26 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
4) MSCI EAFE INDEX |
|
|
0.17 |
|
|
|
-0.51 |
|
|
|
0.88 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
5) MSCI EMERGING MARKETS INDEX |
|
|
0.22 |
|
|
|
-0.39 |
|
|
|
0.79 |
|
|
|
0.88 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
6) DOW JONES U.S. SELECT REIT INDEX |
|
|
0.09 |
|
|
|
-0.38 |
|
|
|
0.56 |
|
|
|
0.58 |
|
|
|
0.48 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
7) S&P GSCI |
|
|
0.28 |
|
|
|
-0.34 |
|
|
|
0.19 |
|
|
|
0.35 |
|
|
|
0.36 |
|
|
|
0.14 |
|
|
|
1.00 |
|
Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR, SSgA Strategy & Research, as of 9/30/2009.
Precise in a world that isnt.TM
DEFINITIONS
CORRELATION:
The strength and direction of a linear relationship
between two random variables.
INDEX DEFINITIONS
BARCLAYS CAPITAL MUNICIPAL MANAGED MONEY INDEX
The Barclays Capital Municipal Managed Money Index is
a rules-based, market-value weighted index engineered for
the tax-exempt bond market. It is a component of the
Barclays Capital Municipal Bond Index.
BARCLAYS CAPITAL LONG U.S. TREASURY INDEX
The Barclays Capital Long U.S. Treasury Index measures
the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury
that have a remaining maturity of 10 or more years. The
Index includes all publicly issued, U.S. Treasury
securities that have a remaining maturity of 10 or more
years, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million
or more of outstanding face value. In addition, the
securities must be denominated in U.S. dollars and must be
fixed rate and non-convertible. The Index is market
capitalization weighted and the securities in the index
are updated on the last business day of each month.
BARCLAYS CAPITAL U.S. AGGREGATE INDEX
The Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Index represents
securities that are SEC-registered, taxable, and dollar
denominated. The index covers the U.S. investment grade
fixed rate bond market, with index components for
government and corporate securities, mortgage
pass-through securities, and asset-backed securities.
These major sectors are subdivided into more specific
indices that are calculated and reported on a regular
basis.
S&P 500 INDEX
The S&P 500 index includes 500 leading companies in
leading industries of the U.S. economy.
LIPPER GENERAL MUNICIPAL DEBT FUNDS PEER GROUP
Mutual Funds that invest at least 65% of their assets
in municipal debt issues in the top four credit ratings.
LONDON PM FIX
The setting of gold prices, twice a day, by the five members of the
London gold pool. This rate is used as a benchmark for
pricing the majority of global gold products and
derivatives. The Gold Fixing is conducted twice a day by
telephone, at approximately 10:30 am and 3:00 pm. There
are five Gold Fixing members all of whom are Market
Making members of the LBMA. They are the Bank of Nova
ScotiaScotiaMocatta, Barclays Bank Plc, Deutsche Bank
AG, HSBC Bank USA, NA and Société Générale. The
chairmanship of the Gold Fixing rotates annually amongst
its members. The fixings are the internationally published
benchmarks for precious metals. They are fully transparent
and are therefore used to deal in large amounts, or to
achieve the accepted average price of the metal. As a
benchmark, many other financial instruments are priced off
the fixing, including cash-settled swaps and options.
S&P GLOBAL BMI EM WORLD INDEX
The S&P Global BMI EM World Index is a float-adjusted
market capitalization weighted index that defines and
measures the investable universe of publicly traded
companies domiciled within global emerging markets.
S&P GLOBAL BMI WORLD INDEX
The S&P Global BMI World Index is a float-adjusted
market capitalization weighted index that defines and
measures the investable universe of 26 Developed World
countries and 26 Emerging Markets countries. It includes
all listed shares of companies with available market
capitalization of at least the local equivalent of US$100
million. At present there are over 9,000 companies
represented in the BMI, which are further divided between
the Primary Market Index (PMI) and the Extended Market
Index (EMI).
DOW JONES U.S. SELECT REIT INDEX
The Dow Jones U.S. Select REIT Index is comprised of
companies whose charters are the equity ownership and
operation of commercial real estate and which operate
under the REIT Act of 1960. The Index is generally
rebalanced monthly, and returns are calculated on a buy
and hold basis except as necessary to reflect the
occasional occurrence of Index changes in the middle of
the month. Each REIT in the Index is weighted by its
float adjusted market capitalization. That is, each
security is weighted to reflect the attainable market
performance of the security which reflects that portion
of securities shares that are accessible to investors.
DOW JONES U.S. SMALL CAP TOTAL STOCK MARKET INDEX
The Dow Jones U.S. Small Cap Total Stock Market Index
is a float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index
that reflects the shares of securities of the small cap
portion of the Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market.Index
actually available to investors in the marketplace. The
index is composed of common stocks, selected for their
capitalization. The Composition of the Small Cap Index is
reviewed semiannually, in March and December. New issues
are added to the Index on a monthly basis as new issues
are added to the Composite Index and fall within the small
cap portion. An issue is removed immediately if it fails
to meet the inclusion requirement of the Composite Index.
Shares and float factors of the Small Cap Index are
updated on a quarterly basis.
Precise in a world that isnt.TM
State
Street Global Advisors
State Street
Financial Center
One
Lincoln Street
Boston,
MA 02111
866.787.2257
spdrs.com
1 Bloomberg, March 5, 2009 October 30, 2009.
FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. NOT FOR USE WITH THE PUBLIC.
ETFs trade like stocks, are subject to
investment risk and will fluctuate in market
value.
Past performance is no guarantee of future
results.
Diversification/Asset Allocation does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.
Because of their narrow focus, sector funds tend to be more volatile than funds that diversify
across many sectors and companies.
Foreign investments involve greater risks than US investments, including political and economic
risks and the risk of currency fluctuations all of which may be magnified in emerging markets.
Although bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, bonds do contain
interest rate risk (as interest rate rise, bond prices usually fall and vice versa) and the risk of
default, or the risk that an issuer will be unable to make income or principal payments.
Additionally, bonds and short-term investments entail greater inflation risk, or the risk that the
return of an investment will not keep up with increases in the prices of goods and services, than
stocks.
The views expressed are the views of John Cronin only through the period ended October 30, 2009 and
are subject to change based on market and other conditions. The opinions expressed may differ from
those with different investment philosophies. The information we provide does not constitute
investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It does not take into account any
investors particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon.
The SPDR® trademark is used under license from The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. No
financial product offered by State Street, a division of State Street Bank and Trust Company, or
its affiliates is sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc.
(McGraw-Hill). McGraw-Hill makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, to the owners
of any financial product or any member of the public regarding the advisability of investing in
securities generally or in financial products particularly or the ability of the index on which
financial products are based to track general stock market performance. McGraw-Hill is not
responsible for and has not participated in any determination or calculation made with respect to
issuance or redemption of financial products. McGraw-Hill has no obligation or liability in
connection with the administration, marketing or trading of financial products.
WITHOUT LIMITING ANY OF THE FOREGOING, IN NO EVENT SHALL MCGRAW-HILL HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY
SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, LOST
PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
The prospectus contains material information about the Trust and its Shares which is material
and/or which may be important to you. You should read the entire prospectus, including Risk
Factors before making an investment decision about the Shares.
SPDR® Gold Trust has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus) with the
SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should read the
prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with the SEC for
more complete information about this offering. You may get these documents for free by visiting
EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust or any Authorized Participant
will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling toll free at 1-866-320-4053 or
contacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street, Attn: SPDR Gold Shares, 30th
Floor, Boston, MA 02111.
STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
This document includes forward-looking statements which generally relate to future events or
future performance. In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by terminology such
as may, will, should, expect, plan, anticipate, believe, estimate, predict,
potential or the negative of these terms or other comparable terminology. All statements (other
than statements of historical fact) included in this document that address activities, events or
developments that will or may occur in the future, including such matters as changes in commodity
prices and market conditions (for gold and the Shares), the Trusts operations, the Sponsors plans
and references to the Trusts future success and other similar matters are forward-looking
statements. Investors are cautioned that these statements are only projections. Actual events or
results may differ materially. These statements are based upon certain assumptions and analyses the
Sponsor made based on its perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future
developments, as well as other factors believed appropriate in the circumstances. Whether or not
actual results and developments will conform to the Sponsors expectations and predictions,
however, is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to
fluctuations in the price of gold; reductions in the amount of gold represented by each Share due
to the payment of Trust expenses and the impact of the termination of the fee reduction under the
Trust Indenture; purchasing activity in the gold market associated with the purchase of Baskets
from the Trust; the lack of experience of the Sponsor and its management in operating an investment
vehicle such as the Trust; unanticipated operational or trading problems; the lack of protections
associated with ownership of shares in an investment company registered under the Investment
Company Act of 1940 or the protections afforded by the Commodity Exchange Act of 1936; the lack of
a market for the Shares; the level of support from the World Gold Council; competition from other
methods of investing in gold; the impact of large-scale distress sales of gold in times of crisis;
the impact of substantial sales of gold by the official sector; the effect of a widening of
interest rate differentials between the cost of money and the cost of gold; the loss, damage, theft
or restrictions on access to the Trusts gold; the lack of adequate sources of recovery if the
Trusts gold is lost, damaged, stolen or destroyed, including a lack of insurance; the failure of
gold bullion allocated to the Trust to meet the London Good Delivery Standards; the failure of
sub-custodians to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the Trusts gold; the limited ability of
the Trustee and the Custodian to take legal action against sub-custodians; the insolvency of the
Custodian; the Trusts obligation to reimburse the Purchaser and the Market Agent for certain
liabilities in the event the Sponsor fails to indemnify them; competing claims over ownership of
intellectual property rights related to the Trust; and other factors identified in the Risk
Factors section of the Prospectus filed with the SEC and in other filings made by the Trust from
time to time with the SEC. Consequently, all the forward-looking statements made in this material
are qualified by these cautionary statements, and there can be no assurance that the actual results
or developments the Sponsor or Marketing Agent anticipates will be realized or, even if
substantially realized, that they will result in the expected consequences to, or have the expected
effects on, the Trusts operations or the value of the Shares. Neither the Sponsor, Marketing Agent
nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the forward-looking
statements. Neither the Trust, Marketing Agent nor the Sponsor is under a duty to update any of the
forward-looking statements
to conform such statements to actual results or to reflect a change in
the Sponsors or Marketing Agents expectation or projections.
The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of the gold held by the Trust (less Trust
expenses) and fluctuations in the price of gold could materially adversely affect an investment in
the Shares.
Precise in a world that isnt.TM
Investors should be aware that the historical performance of gold as an asset class is not
necessarily indicative of its future performance, and there is no assurance that gold will maintain
its long-term value in terms of purchasing power in the future, that gold will be an effective
hedge against inflation or dollar depreciations, that the price of gold will be less volatile than
the prices of other asset classes, or that gold will be an effective tool for diversifying
investment portfolios. In the event that the price of gold declines, the SPDRGold Trust expects the
value of an investment in the Shares to decline proportionately.
Shareholders will not have the protections associated with ownership of shares in an investment
company registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or the protections afforded by the
Commodity Exchange Act of 1936. The Trust is not registered as an investment company under the
Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not required to register under such act. Neither the Sponsor
nor the Trustee is subject to regulation by the CFTC. Shareholders will not have the regulatory
protections provided to investors in CEA-regulated instruments or commodity pools.
Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value
For more complete information, please call 866.320.4053 or visit www.spdrgoldshares.com today.
Marketed by State Street Global Markets, LLC, an affiliate of State Street Global Advisors, One
Lincoln Street, Boston, MA 02111-2900
We encourage investors to consult a tax or financial advisor. All material has been obtained from
sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. There is no representation nor
warranty as to the current accuracy of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Standard & Poors S&P 500® Index is a registered
trademark of Standard & Poors, a
division of The McGraw-Hill Comapnies, Inc.
Distributor: State Street Global Markets, LLC, member FINRA, SIPC, a wholly owned subsidiary of
State Street Corporation. References to State Street may include State Street Corporation and its
affiliates. Certain State Street affiliates provide services and receive fees from the SPDR ETFs.
Before investing, consider the funds investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. To
obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus which contains this and other information, call
1.866.787.2257 or visit www.spdrs.com. Read it carefully.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
©2009 State Street Global Advisors. All Rights Reserved.
|
|
IBG-1060
|
|
Exp. Date: 3/31/2010
|
|
IBG.ETFWD.1209 |
Precise in a world that isnt.TM
First
issued: December 7, 2009. This Free Writing Prospectus is being filled in reliance on Rule
164(b).
SPDR® GOLD TRUST has filed a registration statement (including a prospectus)
with the SEC for the offering to which this communication relates. Before you invest, you should
read the prospectus in that registration statement and other documents the issuer has filed with
the SEC for more complete information about the Trust and this offering. You may get these
documents for free by visiting EDGAR on the SEC Web site at www.sec.gov. Alternatively, the Trust
or any Authorized Participant will arrange to send you the prospectus if you request it by calling
toll free at 1-866-320-4053 or contacting State Street Global Markets, LLC, One Lincoln Street,
Attn: SPDR® Gold Shares, 30th Floor, Boston, MA 02111.