• Year over year, U.S. single-family home prices rose to 3.9% in August, the lowest rate of growth recorded since last July.
• Home price gains are projected to slow to 2.3% by the end of summer 2025.
• Hawaii was the only state to post an annual price drop in August, at -0.1%.

CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI^™) and HPI Forecast^™ for August 2024.

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Figure 1: HPI and HPI Forecast Percentage Change Year Over Year (Graphic: Business Wire)

Home price growth moved up to nearly 4% year over year in August, though gains are projected to fall to less than 1% by next spring. Mortgage rates dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years the last week of September, according to Freddie Mac, but weakening consumer confidence over the job market and uncertainty around the November election could be keeping price growth expectations muted.

“While mortgage rates have dropped in recent weeks, August home sales were by still-high rates in July and August, which lowered affordability,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “The combined impact of high prices and high mortgage rates kept a lid on price growth, with annual gains falling to the lowest level in a year and the monthly gain falling well below what is typically observed in August. Price gains in August were driven by areas in the Northeast but brought down by softening markets in Texas and Florida.“

Top Takeaways:

• U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 3.9% year over year in August 2024 compared with August 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices decreased by 1% compared with July 2024.
• In August, the annual appreciation of detached properties (4.2%) was 4 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (-0.2%).
• CoreLogic’s forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 2.3% in August 2025.
• Miami posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country's 10 highlighted metro areas in August, at 8.9%. Chicago saw the next-highest gain at 6.8%.
• Among states, South Dakota ranked first for annual appreciation in August (up by 10%), followed by New Jersey (up by 9.5%). Hawaii was the only state to record a year-over-year home price loss (-0.1).

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring September 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on November 5, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI^™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts^™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient's publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient's parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, visit https://www.corelogic.com/support/sales-contact/. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic

CoreLogic is a leading provider of property insights and innovative solutions, working to transform the property industry by putting people first. Using its network, scale, connectivity and technology, CoreLogic delivers faster, smarter, more human-centered experiences that build better relationships, strengthen businesses and ultimately create a more resilient society. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

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