• Consumer legal stress tracker accurately signaled winner in last five presidential elections
• Battleground stress drops below national average, consistent with every Democratic win since 2002
• LegalShield provider lawyer: “Gains in employment and lower interest rates grant some relief.”

An analysis of the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index (CSLI) is signaling a win for Vice President Kamala Harris in the presidential election. The index tracks approximately 150,000 calls per month from everyday Americans seeking legal help and has aligned with the last five presidential election outcomes.

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Consumer legal stress levels in key battleground states dip below national average in October 2024, continuing a historical pattern that has aligned with Democratic presidential victories since 2004. (Graphic: Business Wire)

“If this election follows the same pattern it has in the past five presidential elections, our data indicates a Democrat will win the election,” said Matt Layton, LegalShield senior vice president of consumer analytics. “The index is an analysis of 35-million data points since 2002, tracking the reasons why everyday Americans contact a lawyer. This consumer behavior has correlated to the victor in every presidential election since George W. Bush was re-elected.”

Historical Pattern Signals Election Outcome

In each presidential election year since 2004, when battleground states exhibited higher stress in October compared to the national average, a Republican was elected. When battleground states exhibited lower stress than the nation, a Democrat won.

In October, consumer stress in battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – dropped 2.4 points to 65.4, falling 1.5 points below the national index, down from 0.2 points under the national level in September.

Below are the differences between the October stress levels in battleground states and the national index for the past five presidential elections and for this year:

• 2024: -1.5
• 2020: -4.1 (President Biden victory)
• 2016: +0.3 (President Trump victory)
• 2012: -2.9 (President Obama re-election)
• 2008: -6.6 (President Obama victory)
• 2004: +1.0 (President Bush re-election)

“Our data reinforces this is a tight presidential race, as the opinion polls indicate; but our data is based on concrete actions taken by consumers, not voter opinion,” said Layton. “People don’t call a lawyer for a good time; they call to solve a problem. Our indices track when the proportion of calls to lawyers are related to financial stressors like bankruptcy, foreclosure, or consumer finance issues.”

Consumer Stress Remains High Since Midsummer Surge

On a national level, consumer stress remained elevated after a record increase in July. However, it dipped slightly in October, down 1.1 points to 66.9, its lowest level since June.

“Overall gains in employment and wages, and lower interest rates and inflation, have relieved some tension over the past six weeks,” said Mike Fiffik, managing partner at Fiffik Law Group PC, a LegalShield provider law firm in the battleground state of Pennsylvania. “It’s a mixed bag for consumers and stress remains higher over the year, driven by fundamental matters like paying bills. People need help with debt collection, bankruptcy and financial disputes and they're asking us for help on what to pay first, and how to communicate with those they can’t pay.”

The three subindices were mixed on a national level in October:

• The Bankruptcy subindex rose 1.1 points to 34.2, up 16.3% year over year
• The Foreclosure subindex was down 1.4 points to 40.7, down 5.1% year over year
• The Consumer Finance subindex, which measures inquiries regarding a variety of consumer financial concerns such as billing disputes and loan modifications, was down 3.0 points to 105.7, down 0.6% year over year

About the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index:

As part of LegalShield’s mission to ensure every person has equal access to justice, we mine our data for insights policymakers can use to make a real, positive impact in their decision making. Released monthly, the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index is comprised of three subindices which reflect the demand for various legal services. LegalShield’s dataset includes more than 35 million consumer requests for legal assistance since 2002, averaging approximately 150,000 calls received monthly. The CSLI uncovers the daily challenges people are facing and provides actionable intelligence to help policymakers and industry leaders bridge those gaps.

About LegalShield:

For more than 50 years, LegalShield has provided everyday Americans with easy and affordable access to legal advice, counsel, protection, and representation. Serving millions, LegalShield is one of the world's largest platforms for legal, identity, and reputation management services protecting individuals and businesses across North America. Founded in 1972, LegalShield, and its privacy management product, IDShield, has provided individuals, families, businesses, and employers with tools and services needed to affordably live a just and secure life. Through technology and innovation, LegalShield is disrupting the traditional legal system and transforming how and where people receive legal guidance and services, with access to thousands of qualified, trusted attorneys and law firms. LegalShield and IDShield are products of Pre-Paid Legal Services, Inc. To learn more about LegalShield and IDShield, visit LegalShield.com and IDShield.com.

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