These swing states have not turned blue despite the influx of people who have moved in from California and other blue states. And Redfin’s analysis found that Democrats haven’t gained ground relative to Republicans in the two southwestern swing states since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden.

(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Two swing states—Arizona and Nevada—have not turned blue since the last presidential election, despite an influx of people moving in from California, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. Instead, Arizona has lost more than 186,000 registered Democrats since 2020; Nevada has lost 54,000.

Arizona’s blue bleed was much bigger than its loss of about 74,000 registered Republicans over the past four years. Nevada gained less than 1,000 Republicans.

Joe Biden won Arizona by just about 10,000 votes in 2020; he won Nevada by about 34,000 votes. In the wake of the 2020 presidential election, a similar Redfin analysis found that migrants from places like New York and Washington, D.C. likely helped flip Georgia blue.

“Four years ago, the pandemic supercharged a trend that has reshaped the national housing market: People have been leaving expensive, coastal, liberal places like New York and California for affordable, inland, politically moderate places like Arizona and Nevada,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “While a lot of people were simply moving to where they could afford a home, some sought a place where they fit in better politically. While this self-sorting can help explain the voter registration trends, it’s more likely that a lot of Arizonans and Nevadans have been feeling very disillusioned by their political choices.”

Arizona has added about 37,000 voters registered with a party other than Democrat or Republican—referred to as “Independent” in Redfin’s report—since the 2020 election. That brings Arizona’s share of registered Independents to 35.3% of all registered voters, on par with the 35.4% who are Republicans; just under 30% are Democrats. Research shows that those Independent voters may cancel each other out: About half of Independent voters tend to lean Democrat, and half lean Republican, according to the Pew Research Center.

Nevada, meanwhile, has added hundreds of thousands of Independent voters. That brings Nevada to a political division with far more Independent voters than Democrats or Republicans; nearly 42% of registered voters identify as Independent, 30.4% are Democrats and 28.1% are Republicans.

The 2024 voter registration data reported above goes through April.

The Democratic candidate changed in July. But Democratic voter registrations didn’t gain ground relative to Republican registrations.

The most recent voter registration data available for Arizona and Nevada shows that the trends observed in April continued after Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Kamala Harris became the presumptive Democratic nominee in mid-July when Biden dropped out, and the official nominee in early August. The Redfin data team hypothesized that analyzing voter registration data through July would show that Kamala Harris’ entrance brightened the voter-registration picture for Democrats in Arizona and Nevada. But that hasn’t happened, at least not through the end of July.

While both states gained roughly 3,000 registered Democrats from April to July, they gained far more Republican and Independent registered voters. In fact, the share of voters registered as Democrats declined marginally from April to July, from 29.4% to 29.1% in Arizona and from 30.4% to 30.1% in Nevada. The share of registered Republican voters in each state has essentially remained flat over the same time period, while the share of Independent voters has increased slightly from 35.3% to 35.5% in Arizona and 41.5% to 41.9% in Nevada.

Reasons for voter registration changes in Arizona and Nevada: A little political self-sorting, a lot of disillusionment with both major parties

Here are some factors in the voter registration changes from 2020-2024 in Arizona and Nevada:

1. Political self-sorting

California lost a net 341,866 residents to other states in 2022 (the most recent year for which this data, from the U.S. Census, is available), more than any other state. Of the residents who left California, 48,836 moved to Nevada and 74,157 moved to Arizona. Redfin’s migration data shows a similar trend. Las Vegas is the 10th-most popular destination for U.S. homebuyers moving from one metro area to another, with movers most commonly coming from Los Angeles and San Francisco. Phoenix is the third-most popular destination for homebuyers, with people most commonly moving in from Los Angeles and Seattle.

But despite gaining tens of thousands of new residents from California, Arizona and Nevada did not see a blue wave. Rather, their populations of Independents surged. This suggests that the people who moved from California were moderate or conservative voters seeking a place they could better afford, and where they fit in better politically.

Here are some data points that support that theory:

• Nearly half (45%) of very conservative Californians say high housing costs have made them seriously consider moving out of the state, compared to 39% of middle-of-the-road residents and 26% of very liberal residents, according to a 2022 survey from the Public Policy Institute of California.
• More than one-third (36%) of U.S. residents say living in an area where the politics reflect their personal, social and/or political views is a must-have, according to a February 2024 Redfin-commissioned survey.
• The change in voter registration records in Republican-leaning Idaho, another popular destination for pandemic-era movers, is also emblematic of the self-sorting trend: Of the 40,000 new voters who moved from California to Idaho, nearly 30,000 of them registered as Republicans, and just about 4,000 registered as Democrats, according to a 2023 article from the Idaho Capital Sun.

2. Disillusionment with both the Democratic and Republican parties

In Nevada, there was a six-figure gain in Independent voter registrations. Many Nevadans have grown disillusioned with both Democrats and Republicans over the last four years as increased political polarization and partisan gridlock have driven many voters away from the major parties.

3. Young, diverse voters leaning away from the Democratic party

Declining Democratic registration in Arizona and Nevada can be explained partly by the fact that Democratic registrations are declining across the country. Newly registered voters—about half of whom are younger than 30, and half of whom are nonwhite—are less likely to register as Democrats than they have been in the past. It’s worth noting that some evidence shows young, diverse voters may be more likely to vote for Harris than they were for Biden in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

To view the full report, including methodology, please visit: https://www.redfin.com/news/voter-registration-nevada-arizona-2024/

About Redfin

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