The Russell 2000 (INDEXRUSSELL: RUT) has lagged the broad market for years because its small-cap names carry larger-than-average risk in economically constrained environments. Economic constraints include inflation, higher interest rates, and the unknown impact on consumer spending and earnings, but those headwinds are easing.
At least, those headwinds are expected to ease soon, which has sparked a massive shift in the market. Sector rotation is the name of the game today, a rotation from big caps, mega-tech, and the Magnificent Seven into small caps and the Russell 2000 and it is not too late to get on board.
How high can the Russell 2000 go? It is quite high, based on the historical performances and its position today. The Russell 2000 is still 8.7% below its 2022 all-time highs, while the major indices, including the S&P 500 (NYSEARCA: SPY), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (NYSEARCA: DIA), and the NASDAQ (NASDAQ: QQQ), have all set new highs, advancing 10% to 15% above the 2022 break-out point. The takeaway is that the Russell 2000 will likely set a new all-time high by the end of the year and then move on to set another double-digit gain in 2025. Here’s a look at some winners.
Super Micro Computer Plays in the Big Leagues
Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) is a small-cap stock playing in the big leagues with semiconductor companies like NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ: AMD). Its semiconductor solutions are focused on server and data-storage solutions for data centers, including the software to run them and services to support them.
Highlights from fiscal 2024 include revenue growth ramping to 100% in Q2, accelerating to 200% in Q3, and the outlook is solid with 37% sequential growth expected in Q4. At the pace the company is growing, it won’t be a small-cap stock much longer. Analysts have moderated their sentiment over the last quarter but remain firm in the conviction that this stock price will increase. Consensus assumes a 40% upside, and the range's high end opens the door for this stock to double in the next twelve months.
Carvana Has Secular Tailwinds to Drive Its Growth
Carvana (NYSE: CVNA) has struggled the last year to eighteen months and is not out of the woods, but a shift is ongoing that has it set up to sustain growth in the long term. Among the drivers are its digital-first operations, ability to scale at low cost, and the aging U.S. automobile fleet. The average age of a U.S. car is at record highs, setting this market up for an upgrade cycle the FOMC rate cuts will unleash.
Highlights from the FQ1 2024 release include a return to growth, a return to profitability, and an outlook for operations to improve sequentially. Analysts are responding favorably to the news, lifting sentiment from Reduce to Hold following the release and raising the price target by 20%. Consensus lags the market but has been up 250% in the last twelve months; the high end of the range implies a 20% upside, a nearly three-year high.
e.l.f. Beauty: 20% Correction is a Beautiful Entry Point
e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF) stock was corrected by 20% this summer, but the give-back is not a problem due to the 1000% gain seen in the last twelve months. The gain is driven by results, including outperformance and gained share from established cosmetic companies globally. Among the causes for the correction is guidance for 2025, which was considered cautious.
The company expects to sustain growth at a 20% to 22% pace but will likely outperform as it is known to do. The salient detail is that the company continues to gain market share and produce profits, and the guidance has led analysts to lift sentiment and raise targets. The post-release activity has the sentiment to Buy from Hold, and the consensus is up 14% since the previous release, about 17% above the current share price action. The freshest targets have the market at a new all-time high.
